Sanctions on Russia, that’s how Putin is losing Milena Gabanelli

From 24 February Sanctions against Russia Is issued in phases. Before Closed transactions with banksThenStrategic import-exportThen Oil and coal To the United States and the United Kingdom, and to the EU for coal from August. Finally, the sovereign debt blockade through American banks. But how much importance does the United States, Canada, the EU, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Iceland, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Australia, and New Zealand have on Moscow? We see this after consulting with the European Commission and the Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI) and the Italian Public Accounts Observatory, along with dozens of databases, international statistics, and documents from AFAC (US Office of Foreign Asset Control). (Ocpi). There are 37 countries that have adopted sanctions against Russia, but they represent 59% of the world’s GDP.. Among the 193 that do not apply are China, India, UAE, Iran and Turkey.

Transaction block

Securities, loans, investments, loan repayments and credit collection suspended with ten Russian banks. These are Sberbank, VTB, Gazprombank, Alfa Bank, Promsvyazbank, VEB, Otkritie, Rosselkhozbank, Sovcombank and Novikombank. Together they make up about 70% of the assets of the Russian banking system. The US Treasury estimates that Russian banks make about $ 46 billion a day in foreign exchange transactions. Worldwide, 80% of them are in US dollars, and most of those transactions are affected by sanctions. Then there’s Swift Lock, This is an 8 to 11 character alphanumeric string where the bank and the country of origin are specified, used to speed up payments in the international market. The blockade affected Rossiya, as well as six other banks already affected by the suspension (VTB, Promsvyazbank, VEB, Otkritie, Sovcombank and Novikombank). Excluded are Sberbank and Gazprombank, authorized to collect payments for gas, oil, coal exports (which therefore allow to reach about $ 1 billion a day).

Reserve of the Central Bank

Sanctions have triggered bank runs, capital flight and ruble collapse. In response, the Russian central bank raised the cost of the loan and put a hand Government reserve That, In one month, they dropped 39 39 billion. As of February 18, 2022, the central bank had 3 643 billion in its pockets, now it is 604. Not too much, because here too the sanctions have frozen 60% of the reserves, it is the euro, the dollar, the pound and the value of the stock. Yen, equivalent to about িয়ন 350 billion. Since March 24, the United States has also imposed a stop on 133 billion gold reserves. Russia, however, can settle its share of reserves in the currencies of unapproved countries, including China, with 83 billion yuan. To tighten the noose, since April 5, the US Treasury has banned Russia from repaying its sovereign debt in US dollars in US banks.. This means that with the expiration of 101 million coupons on May 27, the state could open bankruptcy proceedings.

Loss of sanctions

The embargo also weighs on countries that can no longer export technology to Russia. Such as semiconductors, computers, lasers, sensors, navigation and telecommunications equipment, all of which can be used for military, aircraft and oil refining purposes. Also stop the export of logistics and luxury goodsFrom haute couture to perfumes, jewelry, electronic devices worth more than 750 euros, cars, watches and their accessories over 50,000 euros, works of art. Imports of iron, steel, coal, timber, building materials and rubber banned by EU. The United States and the United Kingdom have stopped importing oil and coal, valued at more than 12 billion. Where the price of EU coal is 4.3.

How much it weighs on Russia

According to ISPI calculations, sanctions block 12% of Russian imports.Which was universally valid in the pre-epidemic 7 247 billion, and 7% of its exports, equivalent to 7 427 billion. For his part Russia has cut off supplies of wheat, corn and fertilizer. EU countries, on the other hand, are most affected by the lack of exports and imports, considering that the same measures apply to Belarus, as a supporter, and to Donbass, as it is believed that purchases go to war financing. Most affected Lack of steel and rubber imports from Belarus and Donbass Italy and SpainMuch less France and Germany. There is no shortage of attempts to triangulate sanctions on third countries: Customs data, for example, records the export of contraband prohibited goods to Armenia and Kazakhstan. On the other hand, all other products from food to production could be exported to Russia, but the war economy has reduced demand with an estimated global impact of 30 billion (about 20%).

Who leaves and who stays

As can be seen from the Yale database, to date, Of the 773 companies operating in Russia, 252 have withdrawn With international giants such as Apple H&M, Ikea McDonald’s, Microsoft and Netflix and four Italian Assicurazioni Generali, Eni, Ferragamo, Yoox. They suspended operations in 237 International container companies including MSC, Maersk and CMA and Italian companies Ferrari, Iveco, Leonardo, Moncler and Prada. They reduced activity in ’62 Including Enel, Ferrero and Pirelli. 91 people like Barilla and Maire Tecnimont take time. Stay at 131: Acer, Auchan-Retail, Lenovo, And 11 am Italian Buzzi Unichem, Calzedonia, Campari, Cremonini Group, De Cecco, Delonghi, Geox, Intesa Sanpaolo, Menarini Group, UniCredit, Zegna Group.

The resources of the Oligarchs

The list of billionaires, politicians and military personnel confiscating their property has been mis-arranged. The EU has a list of 1,110 names, followed by Great Britain with 989 names and the United States with 407 names. And so it happens that among the 20 richest oligarchs and officials in Russia approved by the EU and the UK, but not by the United States, there I am fertilizer industrialist Andrei Igorevich Melnichenko, Roman Abramovich, Alpha-bank founder Mikhail Friedman, steel maker Victor Rashnikov. Instead, it is approved by the United States and the United Kingdom, but not by the EU, where there is a producer of raw materials, Victor Wexelberg. When Someone Of three The President has approved And the main shareholder of the Russian gas company Novatek Leonid Michelson and steel magnet Vladimir Lysin. Oil giant Lukoel Vagit Alekporov has no sanctions for presidentRosneft is thought to be less close to Putin than President Igor Sechin, who aims to make Lukoil the perfect master of Russian oil (approved by both the EU and the United Kingdom and the United States). Finally, the untouchables contain the metal magnet Vladimir PotaninThe United States considers the 210 people closely associated with the Russian president.

According to Forbes, Russia’s dominance in oil, gas and raw material exports has contributed to the fate of Western producers and companies, as a result of political and economic evaluations of individual countries. Russian companies and their owners, namely oligarchs. The Atlantic Council estimates that oligarchs and officials have hidden about $ 1 trillion in tax havens. (As much as the ownership of the entire Russian population), so finding their property is not easy. In the EU, assets worth 29 29 billion have been frozen to date.

Sports excluded

It is also a ban on sports and culture. Among the athletes and teams at the Olympic Games, Tennis, Soccer World Cup, Ski World Cup and Junior Swimming World Cup. The Champions League final and the Formula 1 Grand Prix circuit will be held outside Russia.

In the end, the important game can only be played by the European Union, which determines whether we fear the end of barbarism and the rule of law, or the period of austerity.

Outside of Eurovision 2022 and Warner Bros., Disney and Sony have postponed the release of the film in Russian theaters. Summary: Overall sanctions are isolating Moscow and doing some damage to its economy, but largely offset by hydrocarbon exports that the EUAnd Italy and Germany in particular, Needed dramatically. In the end, the crucial game that only the European Union can play is determining whether we fear the end of barbarism and the rule of law, or the period of austerity. The solution in the answer.

April 11, 2022 | 06:41

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