Putin’s war in Ukraine is the simplest rule

Panic in Europe. The war has finally begun. Russia has launched an operation in Ukraine. “The Darkest Hour” has defined it simultaneously in London and Brussels without consulting each other. At 5:51 a.m. Moscow time, Russian troops crossed the border from multiple fronts: Donbass, Crimea, Kharkiv and Belarus. The move, which European diplomats did not want to believe until the end, took shape and surprised the entire European Union, which was still mocking itself with mild economic sanctions and secret declarations not to “object” to the gentleman from the gas. .

It must be said that, on the contrary, the Americans felt threatened for once. The warnings of US intelligence were well-established and Washington did not insist on imaginary numbers and artificial satellite imagery for once. However he acknowledged that their numbers were not enough to defeat Putin’s government, but said that maintaining some independence was important.

Moreover, one cannot expect too much from US intelligence: it is the same that, in the equally dark period of withdrawal from Afghanistan, it was assumed that the Kabul government would resist the Taliban insurgency for at least six months (instead of the Taliban, they took control of the country in a few days). ). However, it has the potential to point the finger at Russia, when European intelligence agencies looked the other way.

We have all heard the Kremlin claim that US concerns are only about “Western propaganda”, “fake news” and more. Today, however, Vladimir Putin breaks the deadlock and finally throws off the mask: after compromising the Minsk government and actually absorbing Belarus, he now wants to take Kiev, where Russian MiGs were flying over the city this morning, to the siren. Alarm for possible bombing.

We’ll see how he wants to do it. Meanwhile, President Zelensky has imposed martial law, shouting “Ukraine’s glory”, just as Kyiv was unable to fly its own aircraft and the first bombing of key infrastructure across the country’s southeast.

However, the Russian attack is far-reaching, a centralized strategy aimed at crushing the former Russian satellite in a short time: a. Blitzkrieg, A blitzkrieg that allows for a “glorious victory” for the Kremlin’s strongman, but does not lead to a full-scale attack. From Donbass to Odessa, the project aims to secure Russian-speaking areas and turn Ukraine into an innocent enclave, acting as a buffer for the NATO bloc with the Kremlin-led puppet government.

Vladimir Putin wants to overthrow the current pro-Western government in Kiev and provoke a change in the classic regime that places a loyalist in the presidential palace. The same building that was attacked in 2014, when “Euromaidan” rebels took to the streets until they forced former pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych to flee. Putin has certainly not forgotten that insult, and he is seeking revenge eight years later.

He told the Ukrainian armed forces to “drop your weapons”. “History is with us,” the Russian president argued, increasingly proud of his strategy. Which, of course, made the video an overnight sensation. But, as we know, after the initial push, there is always a stage of clarity and reasoning. And this is the most important thing now: a clear and intelligent answer to the Moscow showdown. First, analyzes international law.

Freed from the so-called moral decay of international law, it must be remembered that, in fact, this is not “the first war in Europe since World War II,” as many commentators and analysts have claimed in these hours. NATO launched the war against Serbia in 1999 in the context of the Kosovo war, which, in contrast, is closely related to what is happening between Russia and Ukraine.

Indeed, at that time – in the 1990s – with the secession of the former Yugoslavia, Serbia sought to seize the historic opportunity to implement a larger Serbian project and respond to the declaration of independence of the Slovenian republics. And with the Croatian war: Serbian military leaders, led by Slobodan Milosevic, were determined to lead the region. But when the autonomous Kosovo of Albanian descent declared their desire for independence, the Serbs also cracked down on them, mainly affecting civilians.

At the same time, NATO intervened to stop the “ethnic cleansing” of Milosevic and guarantee that Yugoslav troops could leave Kosovo and replace international peacekeepers, and that refugees could return to their homes. And he did it with a very hard bombing attack on Serbia, at the stage of folding it. Yet, even today, Kosovo’s border is Europe’s weak point, a sieve through which migrants and criminals pass with impunity, and where negotiations under the auspices of the United Nations to define Kosovo’s dignity still do nothing. .

Was NATO talking about disarmament of Kosovo then as Putin is talking about “demilitarization and de-nazification” of Ukraine today? Many in the Kremlin and beyond think so. Who is right? The problem is that countries born with post-war pen strokes can hardly find peace: just to stay in Europe (not to mention Syria and Iraq in general), it applies. Close to Czechoslovakia and Ukraine, an entity and ethnicity that is half Polish and half Russian. No one ever remembers the partition of Czechoslovakia, because it happened peacefully, when it is believed that we will long remember the secession of Ukraine.

If the frontiers of World War II are partially unrealistic, and a nationalist like Putin cannot ignore them, then what matters most to us is the realization that bringing the war back to Europe is no small feat.

The Russian president has pushed NATO and the European Union against the wall. What do you do? Unprecedented sanctions, as European Commission President Von der Leyen says? Or a military response? We are on the side of Ukraine“We are for Ukraine,” the union’s political leaders rushed to announce. But is that really so? “Without ambiguity,” European chancellors say. Still, the feeling is that we will all see Vladimir Putin imposing his reasons with the dynamics of arms and war. And that’s why it’s able to win. It is the strongest and most irresistible law of the strongest.

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